EU Commission to announce new fiscal restrictions for next 4 years

Τhe European Commission is expected to announce the new four-year fiscal restrictions which will not focus on primary surpluses, as was the case until now, but on public spending changes.

More specifically, the European Commission will publish the spring forecasts for the course of the European economies next week, which means that the member countries – including Greece – will have an idea of how the Commission “sees” the course of their economies.

These will be the last forecasts to be made before June, which is considered a critical month. Next month will also be crucial because the “ceiling” of net expenses changes of each member state for the period 2025-2028 will be announced.

In economic terms this means that the next four state budgets will be drawn up based on these percentages to be announced in a few weeks, while in political terms it should be noted that the obligations that will be undertaken now will effectively bind the first year of the next government term as well as the next parliamentary elections will take place in the summer of 2027 at the latest.

The forecasts

The European Commission will take into account its forecasts for the change in the GDP of each country over the next four years, the annual costs for servicing the debt, but also other key economic indicators, in order to determine the maximum allowable limit of increase in costs. Substantial differences compared to the previous winter forecasts are not expected.

The European Commission is expected to keep the growth forecast at 2.3% for this year and next year, i.e. a little lower than the revised forecasts of the Greek government (as recently reflected in the Stability Program), while it will agree with the assessment of the Greek side that the rapid de-escalation of the debt-to-GDP ratio will continue in the coming years, as well as the return of unemployment to single-digit rates for the first time since the outbreak of the economic crisis.

The Commission is also expected to recognize the possibility of generating primary surpluses close to 2.1% of GDP, regardless of whether this indicator will henceforth be considered of secondary importance within the framework of the new Stability Pact.

It is most likely that Greece’s increase in expenditure will range between 2.5%-3%.

Πηγή: https://www.naftemporiki.gr/english/1657531/eu-commission-to-announce-new-fiscal-restrictions-for-next-4-years/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=eu-commission-to-announce-new-fiscal-restrictions-for-next-4-years